October 2026 Prescott Market Update – Pending Sales Cool as Rates Climb, National Supply Hits a 10-Year High, and What It Means for Home Values

Hi everyone. Geoff Hyland here with The Hyland Group at eXp Realty in Prescott, bringing you your October 2026 market update. The big thing everybody’s talking about right now is interest rates, and last month we saw them make a real impact on pending sales. Let’s get into it.

Pending Sales Cool as Rates Bite

There were 225 pending sales for site-built single-family homes in September. That’s down from 264 in August, roughly a 15% drop month over month, and well below the 270 to 280 per month we were averaging earlier this year. Compared with September 2025, pending sales are down about 19%.

The reason is clear. In September 2025, the average interest rate was 6.72%. As of October 1st, the national average sat at 7.6%. Higher rates make it harder for buyers to qualify for a mortgage and reduce their purchasing power, and that’s exactly what showed up in last month’s numbers.

The Silver Lining for Buyers: A 10-Year High in Supply

Yes, rates are high. But here’s the really good news for buyers: national housing supply is at its highest level in over 10 years. Buyers have more homes to choose from today than at any point in the last decade.

Where Are Rates Headed?

I’m not here to predict the future, but here’s what we know. The Federal Reserve raised rates by a quarter point in September, and the Mortgage Bankers Association expects two more rate hikes over the next year.

The encouraging part is that those future hikes are believed to be mostly priced into the rates you’re seeing right now. So more Fed hikes don’t necessarily mean mortgage rates will keep climbing. That has a lot more to do with the 10-year Treasury and the economic reports still to come, so it remains to be seen.

Closed Sales and Local Inventory

We had 258 closed sales locally in September. We’re sitting at a 4.5-month supply of inventory, not far from the national figure of about 4.9 months.

As for active inventory, there were 1,157 site-built single-family homes on our MLS as of October 1st, a small dip from the 1,209 we saw on September 1st. That’s largely seasonal, and we’ll likely see inventory continue to ease here in Prescott over the coming months.

Days on Market

Across the MLS, homes are averaging about 68 days on market to attract an offer, up from about 65 days last month. That’s the market average. If you’re curious how our listings compare, feel free to reach out.

Values: Steady in Prescott, Swings in Chino Valley

Home values in Prescott saw negligible change last month. Prescott Valley saw a decline of about 2%. Chino Valley took a bigger hit on the charts, down about 9%.

If you live in Chino Valley, don’t be alarmed. Chino Valley simply doesn’t have the sales volume Prescott does, so its numbers swing more from month to month. That figure doesn’t mean your home lost close to 10% of its value in a single month.

When Will Prices Come Down?

This is the question buyers keep asking me: if rates are this high, when will we start seeing meaningful price reductions?

It’s a great question. I’ve been through three market cycles in my career, and historically, when rates stay elevated for a prolonged period, a couple of things happen. Sellers who didn’t really need to sell will pull their homes off the market. Sellers who do need to sell will adjust their pricing. Where values go depends on the mix between those two groups, especially while affordability is holding buyer demand back.

Price reductions are already happening all the time, both here and across the country. There are motivated sellers out there who are listening to buyers and reacting accordingly.

The Bottom Line

September brought a noticeable cooling in pending sales as rates climbed to 7.6%, down about 19% from a year ago. On the bright side, national supply is at a 10-year high, local inventory sits at a balanced 4.5-month supply, and values in Prescott are holding steady. Buyers have more choice and more motivated sellers to negotiate with, while sellers who price well are still finding buyers.

If you’re curious about the value of your home, or you’re looking to buy and want a concise market analysis on a specific property, that’s exactly where we come in.

Questions About Your Specific Situation?

Every buyer and seller has a unique story, and market statistics only tell part of it. Whether you’re thinking about selling, relocating to Prescott, buying your first home, or simply trying to make sense of what today’s market means for your plans, The Hyland Group is here to help.

Ready to make your move with confidence? Contact The HYLAND GROUP today. As the #1 team in Greater Prescott for 14 consecutive years with one sale every 24 hours, we’ll help you navigate today’s market with the expertise that comes from $1.7B+ in sales and serving more than 4,300 families.

Schedule your complimentary consultation today: 928-445-2100.

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