May is here, and the most common question we're hearing right now is: what kind of effect is the conflict in the Middle East having on our local market? The short answer — it's been largely status quo over the past 60 days. Here's a closer look at what the numbers are actually telling us.
Interest Rates: Volatile, But in Context
Rates continue to move around. Right before the Iran conflict began, we briefly touched 5.99% — a number that, as Geoff puts it, "lasted about two or three hours." Once the conflict started, rates climbed quickly into the upper sixes. Last week we sat at 6.3%. This week, Freddie Mac is reporting 6.37%.
Buyers do respond to rate movement — and quickly. Mortgage applications dropped 4.4% this week following that small uptick. That's worth watching, but it hasn't derailed demand in our local market.
Inventory: Our Story Is Different From the National Picture
Nationally, there are an estimated 1.3 million homes for sale — up 3.7% year over year. But locally, we're telling a different story. As of May 1st, there are 1,053 active homes for sale in the Greater Prescott Area MLS — a decrease of nearly 6% compared to this same time last year.
That puts us at a 3.91-month supply. To put it simply: if no new listings came on the market today, we'd be out of inventory in under four months. Most experts consider five to seven months a balanced market. On paper, we remain slightly undersupplied — and Prescott's continued desirability is a big reason why.
April brought 405 new listings to the market — up about 6% from March — and spring inventory typically continues to build through June, July, and August. That said, the pace of inventory growth hasn't been as dramatic as what we saw last year.
Values and Pricing: Sellers Are Listening
After last month's bump — driven largely by a surge in luxury sales — values in Prescott came down approximately 5% month over month. Zooming out over the past 12 months, it's been a pattern of ups and downs, but the overall picture is one of a stable market.
The more telling data point is where active listings are priced relative to actual sales. A few months ago, the average active listing was priced about 14% above the average sales price per square foot. That gap has compressed to around 9% today. Sellers are adjusting, and the market is rewarding them for it.
Days on Market: Moving Faster
Days on market are down across the board — and meaningfully so. Prescott is now averaging 61 days to attract an offer. The MLS overall is averaging 66 days. Not long ago, that number was hovering around 90. Homes are selling more quickly, which is an encouraging sign for the health of the market.
Demand: Holding Strong
Despite the geopolitical noise, demand has not wavered. Since January 1st, 1,041 homes have gone under contract across the MLS. Buyers are still active, still engaged, and still making moves — even amid uncertainty.
The Bottom Line for Sellers
Buyers have options right now, which means pricing realistically is more important than ever. The good news: correctly priced homes are moving. The Hyland Group is selling through listings at a strong pace — but overpriced homes and those with condition issues are sitting. Buyers today are more selective than they were a few years ago, and the data bears that out.
The Bottom Line for Buyers
It's a great time to be a buyer — and don't overlook new construction. Local builders are listening to the market just like resale sellers, and spec inventory has come down in price. Financing incentives from builders are real: the Hyland Group recently locked a buyer on a new construction home at 4.99% through a builder incentive program. That kind of rate is worth exploring.
As always, if you have questions about what this means for your specific situation — whether you're buying, selling, or just keeping an eye on the market — reach out. We'll talk you through it.
Questions About Your Specific Situation?
Every buyer and seller situation is different, and the market picture above is just the starting point. If you want to talk through what this means for your specific goals — whether that's pricing your home to sell in the current environment or understanding your purchasing power right now — reach out. The conversation is free, and the clarity it provides is worth a lot.
Ready to make your move with confidence? Contact The HYLAND GROUP today. As the #1 team in Greater Prescott for 14 consecutive years with one sale every 24 hours, we'll help you navigate this active market with the expertise that comes from $1.7B+ in sales and serving over 4,300 families.
Schedule your complimentary consultation: 928-445-2100.
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